Market update from wesellvancouver

Conditions continue to favour buyers in the Greater Vancouver housing market

The summer of 2012 drew to a close in September with home sale activity well below historical averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,516 in September, a 32.5 per cent decline compared to the 2,246 sales in September 2011 and an 8.1 per cent decline compared to the 1,649 sales in August 2012.

September sales were 41.6 per cent below the 10-year September sales average of 2,597.

wesellvancouver wants to inform people that there has been a clear reduction in the demand the past three months since the federal government made the decision to eliminate the availability of a 30-year amortization on government-insured mortgages which is now making homes less affordable for the people in the region.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,321 in September. This represents a 6.3 per cent decline compared to September 2011 when 5,680 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 31.6 per cent increase compared to the 4,044 new listings in August 2012.

At 18,350, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 14.1 per cent from this time last year and increased 4.5 per cent compared to August 2012.

Since March our sales-to-active listing ratio was 19 percent because this ratio has been declining and now our current ratio sits at 8 percent which puts us into a buyer’s market.

The MLS HPI® composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $606,100. This represents a decline of 0.8 per cent compared to this time last year and a decline of 2.3 per cent over last three months.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in September 2012 reached 594, a decrease of 37.9 per cent from the 957 detached sales recorded in September 2011, and a 31.4 per cent decrease from the 866 units sold in September 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 0.5 per cent from September 2011 to $935,600.

Sales of apartment properties reached 676 in September 2012, a 26.7 per cent decrease compared to the 922 sales in September 2011, and a decrease of 30.4 per cent compared to the 971 sales in September 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 0.7 per cent from September 2011 to $368,600.

Attached property sales in September 2012 totalled 246, a 33 per cent decrease compared to the 367 sales in September 2011, and a 35.8 per cent decrease from the 383 attached properties sold in September 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 2.7 per cent between September 2011 and 2012 to $458,600.

Amalia Liapis states, “While I expect the market to remain slow, I do believe we will see a slight increase in activity mid to late October, lasting until sometime in November. From there, I anticipate the market to remain quiet until the end of February. Now is a great opportunity for Buyers looking to upgrade, as prices have trended downwards and interest rates remain low”.

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These measures will take effect July 9, 2012.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - from the desk of AMALIA LIAPIS

The political elections in Europe went as expected, the parties who promised MORE won but it is doubtful they will be able to keep most of their promises as they are so far in debt that there is simply no more to give. Markets worldwide went down as the reality of the results sunk in, more instability & market volatility over the next few months. Hollande, the new President of France, is already making his presence felt & could put the Franco-German relationship under threat. The last socialist president of France, Mitterand, nationalized the Banks & imposed a wealth tax. Hollande has already stated he will introduce a 75% tax on the wealthy, so maybe the banks are next. The wealthy are usually the wealth makers so they will leave France like they have done previously & like they have done in other countries when overtaxed. I seem to remember the Beatles leaving England after they were given an award in the Queen’s Honors list for bringing in so much foreign money in from their records sales etc. Then the Government introduced a wealth tax that sent the Beatles & most other high earning entertainers overseas; some never to return.

Greece appears to be in total confusion with no clear winner & this could result in further decline of Greek prospects of recovery.  It was hopeless anyway.  Rating agencies are still closely looking at the sovereign & bank risks in Europe. I believe we should expect further downgrades in Spain, France & Greece.

So what about our Vancouver Real Estate market?! Well to begin with we are still awaiting the Finance Minister to introduce an incentive package for First Time Buyers of New Condos.  Developers screamed loud enough with the HST issue that this package looks like it might just become reality.  It is expected to get voted around June 2012 and is only available until March/April 2013.  This will help the new condo market.

I’ve been saying it for a couple of years now…Gastown is the favourite neighbourhood to live in…not a lot of product and what comes up for sale is usually gone quickly.  The downtown condo market will remain steady though out the summer with an emphasis on the entry level purchases. Westside homes continue to be active with steady activity in the $5million and up market.  Price and location will bring immediate results but the general market is still price sensitive...off by $10,000 or $20,000 and there will be little interest from Buyers.  It’s still a buyer’s market overall but have to say the available inventory is rather average.

As always I am available for any questions.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - From the desk of AMALIA LIAPIS

 About 3 weeks ago I noticed a change in the Vancouver market – things went relatively quiet.

Looking forward into the summer I predict the general market will continue that trend.  What that means is that there will continue to be moderate activity overall.  The properties that are receiving the most amount of attention are homes on the East Side of Vancouver in the $1,000,000 range (and yes this is considered good value). Any property; house, townhome or apartment that is on waterfront (or with a great view) and priced well is getting immediate attention.  Vancouver West homes from $3,000,000 and up are selling steadily.  But it all comes down to price so if the property has any shortcomings then an adjustment in price will be needed to gain a buyers interest.

World activities have had an effect on the real estate markets as well. Recent manufacturing data out of China indicates that the economy is still contracting, however at a slower rate than previously expected.  The political problems in Europe continue to surface as seen in the resignation of the Dutch cabinet over night & the weekend’s French election result. These events together with some weaker economic data saw the European markets tumble & Bond rates rose. The sovereignty risk rose in Greece, Spain & Italy when government control was weakened through political unrest. The Dutch problem arose last week when Fitch said it would put Holland (AAA) on ratings review if the government failed to take action to cut their budget deficit & stop their debt from rising. Now Holland will head to elections, earlier than expected, after 7 weeks of negotiations among the ruling coalition parties on budget cuts of Euro 14billion collapsed on Saturday. The Dutch economy is feeling the pinch including a housing market slump. Sounds familiar. Greece, Ireland & Spain revisited? Italy & Portugal?

Most European countries are living well above their means, especially those with pensions, welfare & unemployment benefits. Those earning incomes don’t want earn less through paying more tax in order to help keep these benefit payments at the same level. Who is going to pay? There is no short term fix & so far the decisions made amount to just kicking a can down the road. The debt remains as long as the will to reduce it to manageable levels falls into the political too hard basket. One step at a time, Europe will unravel. The first step could come from the French as they desert their president Nicolsas Sarkozy for a socialist government who would not cooperate with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in keeping Europe afloat. Sarkozy & Merkel have been the glue to keep the Euro together as most other leaders have only been interested in their own problems.

US reporting season continues & this is going well but not standout unless you are one of the favored Tech companies like Apple & Microsoft. GE & McDonalds were also better than expected. Investors have been disappointed with some of the Banks & some of the guidance given for future quarters. Despite its debt worries, the US market has outperformed the ASX thanks to QE1 & QE2.

Overall it’s the worry about Europe that keeps the US market on its toes. Everybody seems to be watching someone in today’s market & just shows what a small world we live in.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – From the desk of Amalia Liapis

2012 MARKET FORECAST

As we move forward into 2012, the year of the Dragon, I thought it helpful to review some global activity that will have a measurable effect on our local real estate market.

China’s fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose 8.9% from a year earlier, beating analysts’ expectations of 8.6% growth. For the full year of 2011, China’s GDP rose by 9.2% compared to a 10.4% rise in 2010. It always amazes me how China can produce statistics so quickly but market analysts are always skeptical on how accurate the data is out of China as there is no way to reliably check the accuracy.

USA reporting season is in full swing for the December quarter and results here will direct US and world markets over the next few weeks. The US still has the world’s largest economy and, while it has slowed, guidance from the corporate world during reporting season will give a better idea of future recovery.  Again the next two weeks will be vital here, but so far so good. Economic data has been better than expected and this has been reflected in the US equities market now at five month highs. This is the year for the Presidential elections, so we can expect to see lots of big promises from both parties that should also help equity markets and real estate activity.

Europe’s financial problems will be with us all during 2012 as there appears no easy fix. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is hoping to raise $500 billion US to help with the European crisis. The US Treasury and some non-euro zone European countries, such as Britain, are reluctant to contribute and this could leave Asian and other developing countries to make up the shortfall.

Greece is trying to work out with its creditors how much they will write off. An agreement of sorts was reached last year as a part of the Greek bailout fund that bond holders would take a “hair cut” of 50%. Now, Greece wants that to be taken out to 68% and could be close to an agreement; however Greek Banks don’t want to be included. No one does, but most will agree if everyone else will. The European Central Bank (ECB) is the largest holder of Greek bonds with a total of around €50 billion ($61.5 billion US). Hedge funds are threatening to sue the Greek Government to make good on bond payments so this issue could hang over any deal made. We could then expect Portugal to be the next to stand up for Portuguese bond holders to also take a “cut,” perhaps then followed by Ireland. If Spain and Italy start looking for a deal then the world economy will be in turmoil for a long time which will have an effect on the stock markets.  During these economic times people start to move their money into other investments and so real estate is an obvious choice. Demand for investment properties will create a momentum in our local market. 

Wesellvancouver.ca is pleased to annouce the addition of a new employee to its team. Catherine Shaffer will be joining in the role of executive assistant to Amalia Liapis and will be working out of the Yaletown office. 

Any general inquiries and non-urgent requests for Amalia can now be directed to Catherine at catherine@wesellvancouver.ca.

Please join us in welcoming her on board!

Moving forward to our Fall market, I expect an increase in housing/land prices and a stable condo/townhome market. The exception will be view properties, which will see a significant spike in demand and pricing in an increasingly competitive market.

VANCOUVER, B.C. – July 5, 2011 - Home sellers outpaced buyers on Greater Vancouver’s Multiple Listings Service® (MLS®) in June, drawing the market back toward balance this summer. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 3,262 in June, a 9.8 per cent increase compared to the 2,972 sales in June 2010 and a 3.4 per cent decline compared to the 3,377 sales in May 2011.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver reached 4,080 in March 2011. This represents a 31.7 per cent increase compared to the 3,097 sales recorded in February 2011, an increase of 30.1 per cent compared to the 3,137 sales in March 2010 and an 80.1 per cent increase from the 2,265 home sales in March 2009. The all-time sales record for March occurred in 2004 when 4,371 transactions were recorded.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 6,797 in March 2011. This represents a 3 per cent decline compared to March 2010 when 7,004 properties were listed for sale on the MLS®, an all-time record for March. Compared to February 2011, last month’s new listings total registered a 19.4 per cent increase.