The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,169 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January 2021, an increase of 63.3% over January 2020 and over a thousand sales higher than the previous record for the month of January. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $845,169, a 16.1% increase from $728,269 recorded in January 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $6.1 Billion, an 89.6% increase from last year.

"It was once again a record-setting month for the provincial housing market," said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. "While sales were strong across all regions of the province, the Fraser Valley, Interior and Vancouver Island regions shattered previous sales records and pushed January sales to new heights."

Total active residential listings were down 21.5% to 20,254 units in January, the lowest level of provincial active listings on record, going back to 2000. With strong sales and so few listings, market conditions are exceptionally tight with less than three months of total supply. 

"The supply of listings continues to be held back by the pandemic," added Ogmundson. "With so few listings, markets are starved for supply and prices are under extraordinary pressure."

The average price and unit sales, broken down by statistics from each Real Estate Board can be found below:

There were 8,268 MLS^® residential unit sales recorded across the province in December, a record for the month which represents an increase of 57.8% from December 2019. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $847,600, an increase of 12.5% from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $7 Billion, a 77.5% increase year-over-year.

“While 2021 is expected to get off to a roaring start, the level of supply in the market is near a record low,” added Ogmundson. “That will likely translate to considerable pressure on prices until listings pick-up.”

There were 93,953 residential unit sales recorded by MLS^® in 2020, an increase of 21.5% from the 77,350 units sold in 2019. The annual average MLS^® residential price in BC was $782,027, an 11.7% increase from $700,369 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $73.5 Billion, a 35.6% increase from 2019.

“Housing markets across the province staged a remarkable recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic and recession,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We expect considerable momentum heading into 2021.”

Total active residential listings were down 16.1% to 20,725 units in December. The average price and unit sales, broken down by statistics from each Real Estate Board can be found below. Year-over-year % change in parentheses.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association reports that a total of 9,416 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November 2020, an increase of 42.1% from November 2019. The average MLS® residential price in BC set a record of $816,074, a 9.3% increase from $746,310 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in November was $7.68 Billion, a 55.4% increase over 2019.

“Home sales were once again unseasonably strong in November with several markets setting records for the month,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While demand continues to be strong, the supply of listings has reached near-record lows in several parts of the province, with prices rising sharply as a result."

Active listings were down close to 14% year-over-year in November, which contributed to a 34.8% sales-to-active listings ratio. Consequently, the provincial average price rose 9.3% compared to this time last year with many markets seeing even stronger price growth.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 32.3% to $66.43 Billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales were up 18.7% to 85,625 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 11.4% to $775,845.

The average price and unit sales, broken down by statistics from each Real Estate Board can be found below:

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 11,051 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October 2020, an increase of 43.8% from October 2019. The average MLS® residential price in BC set a record of $812,960, a 12.5% increase from $722,333 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in August was $8.98 Billion, a 61.8% increase over 2019.

“The provincial housing market sustained its blistering pace of activity in October,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While pent-up demand may be starting to fade, record low interest rates and a recovering job market are supporting strong sales.” “A pandemic-driven shift in buyers’ preference for extra space is pushing average prices to record highs as larger value transactions account for a higher share of sales,” added Ogmundson.

Prices are also being pushed higher by a lack of inventory. Total provincial active listings continue to trend lower and were close to 14% lower in October 2020 compared to 2019.  Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 29.7% to $58.7 Billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales were up 16.3% to 76,140 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 11.5% to $771,085.  

The average price and unit sales, broken down by statistics from each Real Estate Board can be found below. 

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

Last month, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 10,172 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) which is an increase of 42.8% from the same month last year. There was a 12.7% increase in the average MLS® residential price in BC bringing it to $771,309 ($684,093 recorded the previous year). Total sales dollar volume in August was $7.8 billion, a 61.1% increase over 2019.

“Very strong provincial home sales continued in August,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While pent-up demand from the spring is driving much of the increase, we anticipate a sustained strong level of sales through the fall.”

Total provincial active listings are still down more than 10% year-over-year, with some markets even more under-supplied as the pandemic continues to keep listings low. As a result, prices are sharply rising around the province. Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 15.8% to $40.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales were up 4.9% to 53,336 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 10.4% to $757,504.   

The average price and unit sales, broken down by statistics from each Real Estate Board can be found below:

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) has seen a decline in the first quarter of 2020 from 134.2 to 123.2, which can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to the same time last year, the index was down by 4.8%.

The pandemic-induced shutdown of the economy in the last two weeks of the first quarter of 2020 had a notable impact on the CLI, turning all components negative. On the economic activity component, manufacturing sales led the decline. On the employment component, a fall in key commercial real estate sector jobs was the primary driver. Meanwhile, the financial component had the largest negative impact on the CLI, as REIT prices tumbled and risk spreads widened in March. The underlying trend in the CLI was relatively flat in the previous six quarters, but has taken a sudden downward turn due to the pandemic. This suggests that going forward, the environment for commercial real estate activity in the province will be weak as the economy gradually re-opens, and temporarily unemployed individuals slowly return to work.

BC's economy was beginning to slow in the last quarter of 2019, but the rate of slowing was exacerbated by the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020. A fall in manufacturing sales of both durable and nondurable goods were the main drag on economic activity. Also contributing to the drag, but to a lesser extent, were lower wholesale trade sales in motor vehicles, and building material and supplies. Meanwhile, although growth in retail sales was positive in the first two months of 2020, it was not enough to offset the 10% monthly decline in March, as retail stores across the province were shut down halfway through the month due to the pandemic.

Employment growth in key commercial real estate sectors such as finance, insurance, real estate and leasing was negative for the first time since the summer of 2018, down by about 13,500 jobs in the first quarter. Additionally, manufacturing employment fell by about 1,830 jobs from the previous quarter.

The CLI's financial component was negative in the first quarter of 2020 as growing fears of the potential impact of the pandemic resulted in a full market meltdown in late February, sending equity markets into free fall and government bond yields plummeting. However, private borrowing costs rose sharply due to elevated risk premiums, causing a tightening of credit conditions.

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA)

For April 2020, there was a 50.8% decline in residential unit sales recorded by MLS^® compared to April 2019 (3,284 units). The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $737,834, a 7.8% increase from $684,430 recorded the previous year. 

"We expected to see a sharp drop in sales for April as we confronted the COVID-19 pandemic,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, buyers and sellers are adapting to a new normal, and activity should pick up as the economy gradually re-opens.”

While the supply of homes available for sale generally rises through the spring, this year was a bit different. Supply was down close to 10% on a seasonally adjusted basis and down 23.7% year-over-year. Prices remained firm despite the large decline in sales.

Year-to-date, there has been a 9.6% increase in the sale dollar volume for BC residential units bringing it to $15.3 Billion (compared to the same period last year). Residential unit sales are down 1.7% bringing it to 20,164 units while the average MLS^® residential price was up 11.6% to $758,614.

The average price and unit sales, broken down by statistics from each Real Estate Board can be found below:

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

Looking back at March 2020 housing figures, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,717 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) which is an increase of 17.2% from the same month last year. There was 15.1% increase in the average MLS® residential price in BC bringing it to $789,548 compared to March 2019's average of $685,892. For the total sales dollar volume, it hit $5.3 Billion which is a 35% increase over 2019.

“Provincial housing markets started the month very strong before the COVID-19 pandemic put a halt to activity,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Activity will slow considerably in April as households and the real estate sector implement measures necessary to mitigate the spread of this virus.”

“While we don’t know when this unprecedented period will end, markets will be boosted by pentup demand and historically low interest rates when it does,” added Ogmundson. “The ultimate strength of the recovery will depend on how long the economy remains effectively shut down, as well as the efficacy of federal and provincial measures to bridge households through the financial difficulties brought on by the pandemic.”

The year-to-date BC residential sales dollar volume totals $12.9 Billion. In comparison to the same period in 2019, this is an 37.1% increase. The residential unit sales totals 16,866 which is an increase of 21.7% from last year. The average MLS® residential price totals $763,031 which is an increase of 12.6% from last year.

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

Changes to the mortgage stress test have been announced by Federal Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau, on February 18, 2020. In short, the stress test is used to determine the minimum qualifying rate for insured mortgages. The changes announced have come in effect as of April 6, 2020. The new benchmark rate will be the weekly median five-year fixed insured mortgage rate from mortgage insured applications, plus 2%.

As a result of a review by federal financial agencies, it has been determined that the minimum qualifying rate should be more dynamic to better reflect the evolution of market conditions. The change to the stress test will allow it to be more representative of the mortgage rates offered by lenders, and more responsive to market conditions.

“For many middle class Canadians, their home is the most important investment they will make in their lifetime. Our government has a responsibility to ensure that investment is protected and to support a stable housing market. The government will continue to monitor the housing market and make changes as appropriate. Reviewing the stress test ensures it is responsive to market conditions.”

Contact us at info@wesellvancouver.ca or 604-716-6155 for any of your buying or selling needs. 

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association and Government of Canada

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) has decreased to 134.3 in 2019 Q4 for the second straight month. Looking back at the same time last year, the CLI has increased by 0.3%. The provincial economic activity slowed down which can be attributed to a slow down in the wholesale trade (2.0% decrease) and manufacturing sales (0.6% decease) despite retail sales seeing an increase of 0.8%

The economic activity component of the CLI has been negative for the sixth consecutive quarter. The economic activity component follows the overall trend in the BC economy and reflects changes in economic variables shown to lead commercial real estate activity.

The employment component of the CLI has also seen a negative change due to a decline in manufacturing employment despite office employment increasing. The employment component reflects changes in the commercial real estate environment due to changes in the overall business cycle.

The financial component of the CLI has also seen a negative change despite seeing three consecutive quarters of positive performance. The financial component acts as an early warning indicator from financial markets that could signal turning points in the commercial real estate market.

The underlying trend in the CLI has been relatively flat over the past six quarters, suggesting a continued stable environment for commercial real estate activity in the province. 

The slowdown in BC's economy can be attributed to weak manufacturing sales in durable goods and lower wholesale trade sales in motor vehicles and machinery and equipment. On the contrary, retail sales were positive after two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, retail sales saw the lowest growth rate since the 2009 financial crisis.

There has been an increase of 1,600 jobs in the fourth quarter in 2019 for key commercial real estate sectors which include finance, insurance, real estate and leasing. On the other hand, there has been a decrease of 6,700 jobs in the manufacturing sector last quarter.

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA)

There was a total of 7,093 residential unit sales recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, which is a 4.9% increase from the same month last year. There was also an increase of 2.6% from the same month last year for the average MLS® residential price bringing it to $685,575. Total sales dollar volume saw an increase of 7.6% from the same month last year to $4.86 Billion.

"BC home sales continue to recover from a policy-driven downturn," said BCREA Deputy Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. "Home sales have been rising through the spring and summer, but still remain well below pre-B20 stress test levels."

MLS® residential active listings in the province were up 10% from August 2018 to 40,098 units and were essentially flat compared to July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Overall market conditions remained in a balanced range with a sales-to-active listings ratio of about 18%.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume totalled $34.9 Billion which is a 16% decrease from the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales totalled 50,806 units which is a 12.2% decrease. The average MLS® residential price was down 4.4% year-to-date at $686,303.    

For a detailed look at the residential average prices, active listings and sales-to-active-listings data for August 2019, click here.

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA).

“BC home sales climbed higher for the first time in 18 months on a year-over-year basis in July,” said BCREA Chief Economist Cameron Muir. Housing demand has also trended higher since March, rising 21 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis. “Households appear to be adjusting to the tighter credit environment as the shock of the B20 stress test dissipates.”

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports a 27% decline in residential unit sales from the same month last year (as per MLS®) which is a total of 4,533 residential unit sales recorded. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $678,625, a 9.3% decline from February 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $3.08 Billion, a 33.8% decline from the same month last year.

“Prospective homebuyers continue to be sidelined by the mortgage stress test,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Deputy Chief Economist. “As a consequence, and despite a strong BC labour market, sales remained slow in February.”

Total MLS® residential active listings increased 36.5% to 30,891 units compared to the same month last year. The ratio of sales to active residential listings declined from 27.4% to 14.7% over the same period.

“Falling mortgage rates should provide some relief for homebuyers, providing a small boost to affordability heading into the spring,” added Ogmundson.

As per the Real Estate Board of Vancouver, the February statistics for Metro Vancouver can be seen below.

The Metro Vancouver* housing market saw increased supply and below average demand in February. The REBGV reports that home sales in the region saw a 32.8% from the same month last year (1,484 units in February 2019). Last month's sales were 42.5% below the 10-year February sales average.

"For much of the past four years, we’ve been in a sellers’ market. Conditions have shifted over the last 12 months to favour buyers, particularly in the detached home market. This means that home buyers face less competition today, have more selection to choose from and more time to make their decisions." -- Phil Moore, REBGV president

* Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.

Based on projections for the remainder of the year, MLS® residential sales are expected to decline 9% to 94,200 units compared to 103,700 units in 2017. As well, 2019 and 2020 forecasts predict sales to decrease to 94,000 and 84,800 units, respectively.

The Lower Mainland - Southwest region of the province (which includes the Greater Vancouver Area, the Fraser Valley and Chilliwack) constitutes ~60% of the housing demand in BC. Housing demand fell sharply in the first four months of 2018 as a result of tighter mortgage qualifications. There was minimal impact on home prices as a result of the slower housing demand.

The type of housing market varies depending on housing type. The detached market in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley is showing a balanced market whereas the attached and apartment markets remain significantly undersupplied. 

While the housing market is slowing in growth, it is still continuing to be supported by a strong economy. Looking at the health of BC's economy has been promising. The economy has expanded at an above-trend growth rate for four consecutive years resulting in increased interprovincial migration, employment growth and overall strong consumer confidence. Early 2018 data has been consistent with the interpretation that the "BC economy will continue to produce the remarkable economic and employment growth enjoyed since 2014".

Currently, there are over 60,000 residential units under construction in BC. The increase in new home completions coupled with the slowing housing demand will result in trending most BC markets towards balanced conditions this year, and lead to less upward pressure on home prices.

For a more detailed look at the housing and economic forecast, click here. For all your real estate needs, contact our offices at 604-801-6654 or alternatively at info@wesellvancouver.ca.

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA)

GREATER VANCOUVER SALES - Last month, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports a total of 3,022 residential property sales within the Metro Vancouver area (7.1% increase compared to September 2017). The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,042,300. This is a 12.4% increase over October 2016 and a 0.5% increase compared to September 2017.

"Conditions continue to vary significantly based on property type. The detached home market is well supplied with homes for sale, which is relieving pressure on prices," Jill Oudil, REBGV president said. "It remains a much different story in the townhouse and apartment markets. Buyers of these properties continue to have limited supply to choose from and are seeing upward pressure on prices."

Below you will find a comparative chart that depicts the Greater Vancouver residential sales from 2015 to present.

BC SALES - The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports a total of 8,677 residential property sales within BC (4.04% increase compared to September 2017). Total sales dollar volume was $6.25 billion, up 41.6 per cent from October 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $720,129, up 18.7 per cent from October 2016.

"BC home sales trended higher in October, up 23 per cent from January on a seasonally adjusted basis," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "A lack of supply in the resale market continues to put upward pressure on home prices in most BC regions."

For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at 604-618-7000 or alternatively, at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca.

While it has been an ongoing trend that demand has been outpacing supply, residential sales have not been slowing down. In the latest market stats released mid-June by the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), there continues to be a month-over-month surge in residential sales. There has been a 26% increase in sales from April 2017 to May 2017 with a total of 12,402 residential home transactions. If it weren't for the low supply, 20-year low as a matter of fact, sales figures may even be higher than actual figures. This amount is 8% lower than May 2016 when the market was hot.

As you can see below, as a result of 9 of 11 real estate boards in BC having a home sales to active listings ratio above 20%, this has resulted in a seller's market. The BCREA states that anything greater than 20% for a sustained period is a seller's market. The Greater Vancouver region, the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Victoria all have seen ratios of over 50%.

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

In May 2017, MLS® recorded a total of 12,402 residential unit sales and an average MLS® residential price in BC of $752,536 which is a 7.9% decrease and 4.2% increase, respectively, from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume amounted to $9.33 Billion which is a 4% decrease from May 2016. 

For a detailed look at residential statistics for May 2017, read our previous blog here. For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at 604-618-7000 or alternatively at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca.