Following suit with previous months, housing demand is still continuing to outpace supply. In May 2017, MLS® recorded a total of 12,402 residential unit sales and an average MLS® residential price in BC of $752,536 which is a 7.9% decrease and 4.2% increase, respectively, from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume amounted to $9.33 Billion which is a 4% decrease from May 2016. 

“Market conditions have tightened considerably this spring as an upturn in consumer demand has not been accompanied by a rise in homes listed for sale,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The supply of homes for sale in the province has fallen 50 per cent over the past five years.

There is a shortage of housing supply in the entire southern portion which consequently results in upward pressure on home prices. Total active listings has decreased by 11.1% in comparison to May 2016 and totals 28,404 units. The ratio of home sales to active listings was over 20% in 9 of the province's 11 real estate boards and over 50% in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Victoria.

Below you will find a comparative chart showing May 2017 and May 2016 figures for average residential price, active listings, sales-to-active listings, dollar volume and residential units sold in BC. (Click to enlarge photo).

For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at 604-618-7000 or alternatively at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca.

Vancouver has seen slower home sales in August but there has been an overall strong housing demand across most regions within BC. There were 8,945 residential units recorded by the  Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) last month which is an increase of 1.5% compared to the same month last year. As for the total sales dollar volume, it has seen a decrease of 6.7% compared to last year with a total of $5.1 Billion in sales. The average MLS® price has also seen a deline of 8.1% compared to the same month last year which brings it to $569,393. 

"The newly introduced 15 per cent foreign buyer tax combined with the 3 per cent property transfer tax on homes over $2 million brought in earlier this year, slowed demand at the top end of the market in Vancouver last month." - Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.

"The decline in the average home price was due to a change in the composition and location of homes sold in the province," added Muir. "Fewer sales of high priced detached homes relative to all other homes sales in Vancouver as well as fewer Vancouver home sales relative to the rest of the province has caused the average price statistic to decline."

Year-to-date, the BC residential sales dollar increased to $61.6 Billion (39.1% increase) when compared to the same period in 2015. As for the unit sales, it has also increased to 86,206 units (22.1% increase) whereas the average MLS® residential price totaled $714,400 (13.9%). 2016 was off to a good start with record-breaking sales while July and August saw more historically normal activity.

The new foreign tax implemented appears to be a factor in the downward residential sales within the Metro Vancouver area. It has reduced foreign buyer activity within the residential market and has caused some uncertainty amongst local home buyers and sellers. It may be a little early to see the true impact of this new tax but in a few months time, we would be able to analyze foreign buyer data more closely. As September comes to an end, stay tuned in the next few weeks for stats on this month. For all your real estate needs, contact the WeSellVancouver team at info@wesellvancouver.ca or alternatively at 604-801-6654.

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA)

It's no surprise that the ongoing trend of housing demand outpacing supply has followed us into the month of May. Let's look back at April 2016 statistics to solidify our understanding of the housing market. 

There has been an increase of 30.3% residential unit sales when comparing April 2016 to April 2015 with a total of 12,969 units recorded. The total sales dollar volume was $9.64 Billion which is a 52.7% increase compared to the same period in time last year. Looking at the average MLS® residential price in BC of $743,640 shows a year-over-year increase of 17.2%. 

“Housing demand is exceptionally strong across the southern regions of the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Consumers appear to be particularly active in the Vancouver Island, the Fraser Valley and the Thompson/Okanagan regions.” “Strong employment growth is helping underpin consumer confidence,” added Muir. 

Despite what appears to be a period of higher than normal unemployment, there has been an additional 78,000 workers employed in BC in the first quarter of 2016 which is a 3.5% increase in comparison to the same period last year. Looking at the year-to-date statistics, the BC residential sales dollar volume is sitting at $31.2 Billion (64.3% increase), unit sales total 28,028 units (36.2% increase) and the average MLS® residential price is currently $761,860 (20.6% increase). Take a look below for a regional breakdown of MLS comparative data and the changes from April 2015 to April 2016. 

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA)

For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis by e-mail at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca or alternatively by phone at 604-618-7000.

Join us in this three part series on Canada's financial perspective featuring blogs on the (1) Mortgage Rate Outlook (2) Economic Outlook and (3) Interest Rate Outlook. 

Interest Rate Outlook

The Agreement between the Bank of Canada and the Goverment of Canada for the Inflation-Control Target was renewed in 2016. The Bank of Canada has a mandate to keep an inflation-control target range of 1-3% with 2% as being the midpoint target over the medium-run. This target is the year-over-year increase in the total consumer price index (CPI) which is the most relevant cost of living measure for most Canadians. Keeping the inflation target in mind, the Bank of Canada has to maintain a delicate balance given the current state of the economy as well as inflation trending near its target. 

The low oil prices have taken a snowball effect as it continues to increase unemployment in energy producing provinces while simultaneously causing a weaker Canadian dollar which in turn makes the cost of imported goods more expensive. The BCREA expects a continued weak economic growth for the first quarter. However, with "the possibility of an effective fiscal stimulus, a stronger US economy and a stabilization of oil prices points to stronger growth ahead" (BCREA, 2016).

"After standing on the sidelines for years, the Bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark [interest] rate twice last year in an attempt to stimulate a Canadian economy waylaid by low oil prices" (CBC, 2016). Since then, there have been some signs of improvement. There is potential for the Bank of Canada to reduce rates once more in 2016 although the BCREA's expectation is that the Bank will remain on the sidelines throughout the year. The Bank of Canada has elected to keep its benchmark lending rate at 0.5%. In a broad sense, the Bank will reduce rates when the economy needs to be stimulated or alternatively, would increase rates when it needs to pump the brakes on inflation. 

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association + CBC Business

Thanks for joining us in this three part series on the Canadian Financial Outlook. For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca or alternatively, at 604-618-7000.

Join us in this three part series on Canada's financial perspective featuring blogs on the (1) Mortgage Rate Outlook (2) Economic Outlook and (3) Interest Rate Outlook. 

Economic Outlook

Looking back at 2015, the first half of the year saw negative growth but looking at the big picture reveals a registered economic growth of 1.2%. Multiple factors attributing to the slow economic growth in 2015 has trickled into 2016 as well such as the low oil prices and the related adverse effects on income and job growth. With the newly elected federal government in place, there is an effort to utilizing old-fashioned fiscal policy in order to boost economic growth.

The range for the estimate of the fiscal multiplier for Canada ranges from 0.5 to 1.5. The fiscal multiplier is a ratio that shows the effect of government spending on economic activity. However, the level of impact of fiscal policy is highly interdependent on the state of the economy. BCREA's current forecast for the Canadian economy is for economic growth of 1.6% in 2016 and 2.5% in the following year, taking into account the impact of expansionary fiscal policy. 

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

Stay tuned for the last part of the blog series where we'll dive into the Interest Rate Outlook. For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca or alternatively, at 604-618-7000.

From a macro perspective, Canada's economy is going through a rough patch and growth is slowing down. Several variables contribute to this such as the equity markets being off to a historically bad start, the weak Canadian dollar and the oil prices struggling to find a floor. On the bright side, looking at BC's economy allows us to let out a bit of a sigh of relief. There seems to be a multitude of indicators that provide British Columbians with a glimmer of hope as these indicators point to significant momentum underlying our provincial economy.

The pace in which consumer spending and retail sales grew last year was the fastest pace in close to a decade. This key indicator proved to be the largest component of BC's economy. As a result of this, this growth largely reflected markedly improved labour market fundamentals. While employment growth has seen sluggish growth for the past few years, the last six months of 2015 proved to be a stark contrast. Growth was moving at more than a 2% rate over the latter half of the previous year. Full-time employment seeing an increase was the driver spearheading the growth seen.

With the growth demonstrated, it is no surprise that British Columbians were in a spending mood. Not only did consumption goods see an increase in sales but larger paychques and confidence in the BC economy resulted in the third highest year on record for provincial home sales. With the relative strength of the economy in BC, it is no wonder why we are seeing more interprovincial migration with workers moving to BC. Since 2013, there has been a net inflow of more than 30,000 people from other provinces, resulting in population growth and adding to an already strong housing and consumer demand.

With a strong housing demand comes a record low supply of re-sale and new housing in BC. Developers reacted to this lack of supply by breaking ground on over 30,000 new housing units last year making it the highest number of housing starts since 2008. All in all, BC's economy is forecasted to continue being a growth leader in Canada for this year and the years to come.

Source: BCREA Economics - Brendon Ogmundson

Just as predicted, the housing market in BC is off to a strong start with 5,831 recorded residential unit sales on MLS which is a 33.2% increase in relation to January 2015. Correlating to those sales was a total sales dollar volume of $4.39 Billion which is a 69.1% increase compared to January 2015. Looking at BC's average MLS residential price, there has been an increase of 26.9% year-over-year. Below you will find two charts with comparative data between January 2016 and January 2015 and their respective percentage changes.  

"The BC housing market continues to build on momentum from a very strong 2015. Heightened demand is being met with the lowest level of supply in a decade, resulting in increased pressure on prices in much of the province." -- BCREA Economist, Brendon Ogmundson 

Despite the strong housing demand, MLS residential sales are forecasted to see a slight 6.2% decline for 2016. Additional information for this year's projections can be found on our last blog here. 

For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca or alternatively at 604-618-7000.

According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), residential sales for December 2015 totalled 6,590 unit sales which is a 29.8% increase in comparison to December 2014 figures. As for the total sales dollar volume, it increased by a staggering 55.4%, ending the year off with an additional $4.62 billion in sales! Average MLS residential prices in BC hit a new record by going over the $700,000 threshold for the first time with prices averaging out at $700,943.

Take a look below at the BC Residential Unit Sales. As you can see, there has been rapid growth over the past few years with 2015 almost exceeding the record number of sales in 2005. At this rate, it looks like 2016 will be a promising year.

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

"The 2015 housing market finished in dramatic fashion, with record demand for the month of December," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "BC home sales breeched the 100,000 unit threshold in 2015, and it was only the third time on record that this high watermark was achieved." 

The higher than normal average MLS residential prices in conjunction with the record annual unit sales allowed for $65.3 billion in sales for 2015, which is a 37% jump from 2014 figures. Last year was definitely a strong year in favour of the seller and this year looks no different. 

For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca or alternatively at 604-618-7000.

With a major decrease in Canadian bond yields to 0.52 as of March 27, 2015. The plummet in bond yields is in part due to the surprise rate cut at the Bank of Canada's meeting in January. In spite of that, posted mortgage rates have moved slightly lower and banks passed through only a partial amount of the 25 basis point rate cut to prime rates that govern variable mortgages. The forecasts for future rate decisions have seen fluctuation. The five-year bond yield hit a record low of 0.59% but has since rebounded. The five-year fixed mortgage rate is currently at 4.74% which may be the absolute floor. The 0.75% decline in the five-year bond yield translated to only a 0.04% reduction in the qualifying rate.

It may be a while before mortgage rates move substantially higher. The mortgage rate forecast for 2015 and 2016 are shown below. Projections show that mortgage rates will continue to stay at historic lows for the remainder of the year. As the Canadian economy rebounds from the decline in oil prices and if the US Federal Reserve begins to tighten in the summer months, we may see some upward pressure on long-term interest rates in the last quarter of this year and into 2016.

Source: Bank of Canada, BCREA Economics