Join us in this three part series on Canada's financial perspective featuring blogs on the (1) Mortgage Rate Outlook (2) Economic Outlook and (3) Interest Rate Outlook. 

Interest Rate Outlook

The Agreement between the Bank of Canada and the Goverment of Canada for the Inflation-Control Target was renewed in 2016. The Bank of Canada has a mandate to keep an inflation-control target range of 1-3% with 2% as being the midpoint target over the medium-run. This target is the year-over-year increase in the total consumer price index (CPI) which is the most relevant cost of living measure for most Canadians. Keeping the inflation target in mind, the Bank of Canada has to maintain a delicate balance given the current state of the economy as well as inflation trending near its target. 

The low oil prices have taken a snowball effect as it continues to increase unemployment in energy producing provinces while simultaneously causing a weaker Canadian dollar which in turn makes the cost of imported goods more expensive. The BCREA expects a continued weak economic growth for the first quarter. However, with "the possibility of an effective fiscal stimulus, a stronger US economy and a stabilization of oil prices points to stronger growth ahead" (BCREA, 2016).

"After standing on the sidelines for years, the Bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark [interest] rate twice last year in an attempt to stimulate a Canadian economy waylaid by low oil prices" (CBC, 2016). Since then, there have been some signs of improvement. There is potential for the Bank of Canada to reduce rates once more in 2016 although the BCREA's expectation is that the Bank will remain on the sidelines throughout the year. The Bank of Canada has elected to keep its benchmark lending rate at 0.5%. In a broad sense, the Bank will reduce rates when the economy needs to be stimulated or alternatively, would increase rates when it needs to pump the brakes on inflation. 

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association + CBC Business

Thanks for joining us in this three part series on the Canadian Financial Outlook. For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca or alternatively, at 604-618-7000.

Join us in this three part series on Canada's financial perspective featuring blogs on the (1) Mortgage Rate Outlook (2) Economic Outlook and (3) Interest Rate Outlook. 

Economic Outlook

Looking back at 2015, the first half of the year saw negative growth but looking at the big picture reveals a registered economic growth of 1.2%. Multiple factors attributing to the slow economic growth in 2015 has trickled into 2016 as well such as the low oil prices and the related adverse effects on income and job growth. With the newly elected federal government in place, there is an effort to utilizing old-fashioned fiscal policy in order to boost economic growth.

The range for the estimate of the fiscal multiplier for Canada ranges from 0.5 to 1.5. The fiscal multiplier is a ratio that shows the effect of government spending on economic activity. However, the level of impact of fiscal policy is highly interdependent on the state of the economy. BCREA's current forecast for the Canadian economy is for economic growth of 1.6% in 2016 and 2.5% in the following year, taking into account the impact of expansionary fiscal policy. 

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

Stay tuned for the last part of the blog series where we'll dive into the Interest Rate Outlook. For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca or alternatively, at 604-618-7000.

Join us in this three part series on Canada's financial perspective featuring blogs on the (1) Mortgage Rate Outlook (2) Economic Outlook and (3) Interest Rate Outlook. 

Mortgage Rate Outlook

The financial markets have seen tremendous volatility thus far with record low oil prices with consumers and investors being more risk averse as a result. This risk aversion has overwhelmed any potential pressure on yields from bonds that may have arisen due to the US Federal Reserve tightening the monetary policy. In Q1 of 2016, Canadian bond yields dropped to a low of 0.48% but have bounced back to 0.8%. Bond yields may continue to see a rise due to the anticipation of economic growth towards year end. 

Despite the volatility in the financial market, there is a silver lining for home buyers as it is keeping the mortgage rates low for the time being. Take a look below at the forecasts for both 2016 and 2017. The one-year mortgage rates are seeing a slight increase towards Q4, however, the five-year rates are expected to be stabilized at 4.64% for the entirety of 2016 which is good news for home buyers! 

Note: Rates are based on an average of weekly rates
Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

Source: British Columbia Real Estate Association

Stay tuned for the next part of the blog series where we'll dive into the Economic Outlook. For all your real estate needs, contact Amalia Liapis at amalia@wesellvancouver.ca or alternatively, at 604-618-7000.