December 9, 2013

With the holidays approaching, sellers often wonder if they should keep their properties on the market or take them off? Or if they haven't listed their homes yet, should they wait until after the first of the year? Maybe hold off until spring?

Conventional wisdom used to be that you shouldn't even try to sell your home during the busy holiday season. Potential homebuyers were too preoccupied with attending parties, cooking meals, buying presents or planning vacations. With all that going on, there just wasn't time to ride around with a real estate agent, looking at properties.

But with the Internet, smartphones, tablets and our always-on lifestyle, that conventional wisdom isn't relevant anymore. The reality is, the home buying season is now year-round. Here's why you should consider listing your home during the holidays, or even in January.

Today's buyers never stop looking online: Serious buyers are always looking -- and the holidays are no exception. Many buyers today work hard. They don't shift into holiday mode until the last minute. Even during the holiday break, they're still squeezing in work. There's no such thing for them as "going off the grid." So why not continue to monitor real estate listings, too?

The inventory -- and the competition -- is usually lighter: Despite our always-on lifestyles, many sellers still believe buyers can't be bothered to look for a home between, say, Thanksgiving and Valentine's Day. At the same time, sellers who've had their homes on the market often take them off during the holidays. The net effect is that the inventory for good homes often tightens this time of year. So there's less competition for sellers, at a time when motivated buyers are out there looking -- and no doubt wishing there were more properties to see. The supply and demand pendulum swings in favour of the Seller.

If you've been considering selling, are motivated, are flexible on timing and have a home that truly sparkles, after Thanksgiving there's still a window of several weeks to get buyers into your home before the end of the year. And those buyers flipping through listings at their kids' basketball game will be excited to see something new and awesome hit the market -- especially if there's a lack of good inventory in their area. These buyers will be motivated to see your home, regardless of what the calendar says.

Home not selling? Now's the time to lower the price or change your strategy: If your property has been on the market for months, most buyers and their agents will see it as stale or overpriced and disregard it no matter how great it is or how light the competition is. In that case, it's time to take action, and the year-end holidays can be a great opportunity to shift course. Dramatically reducing the price or overcoming some major obstacle that's been preventing the sale might be what's needed to sell your home.

If you received lower offers early on but weren't ready to accept them, or you keep hearing there are issues with how your property shows, this is a good time to show the market you're listening and are serious about selling. The motivated buyers, desperate for good inventory, will notice you and take a look. You might even get a sale closed before the end of the year.

Don't want to be bothered during the holidays? List in January: Admittedly, the thought of keeping the house clean, holding open houses and vacating to accommodate last-minute showings during the holidays is a deal killer for some sellers. If so, consider listing your property after New Year's Day.

Traditionally, not much inventory comes onto the market in January. It's cold in most places, the leaves are off the trees and landscaping is dead. Many sellers wait until the spring instead, a more conventional time to sell.

January inventory is still very tight. Often, new buyers -- with their fresh New Year’s resolution to stop wasting money on rent and buy a home -- are ready to jump into the market as soon as possible. Some buyers are motivated to search for a home in January because of year-end tax planning.

Whatever the buyers' motivation, for sellers it means one thing: Demand for homes can increase at a time when inventory is traditionally low. And that means if you're ready to sell, you'll have an even more "captive" audience during the holidays, all the way through January.

Market update from wesellvancouver

Conditions continue to favour buyers in the Greater Vancouver housing market

The summer of 2012 drew to a close in September with home sale activity well below historical averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,516 in September, a 32.5 per cent decline compared to the 2,246 sales in September 2011 and an 8.1 per cent decline compared to the 1,649 sales in August 2012.

September sales were 41.6 per cent below the 10-year September sales average of 2,597.

wesellvancouver wants to inform people that there has been a clear reduction in the demand the past three months since the federal government made the decision to eliminate the availability of a 30-year amortization on government-insured mortgages which is now making homes less affordable for the people in the region.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,321 in September. This represents a 6.3 per cent decline compared to September 2011 when 5,680 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 31.6 per cent increase compared to the 4,044 new listings in August 2012.

At 18,350, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 14.1 per cent from this time last year and increased 4.5 per cent compared to August 2012.

Since March our sales-to-active listing ratio was 19 percent because this ratio has been declining and now our current ratio sits at 8 percent which puts us into a buyer’s market.

The MLS HPI® composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $606,100. This represents a decline of 0.8 per cent compared to this time last year and a decline of 2.3 per cent over last three months.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in September 2012 reached 594, a decrease of 37.9 per cent from the 957 detached sales recorded in September 2011, and a 31.4 per cent decrease from the 866 units sold in September 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 0.5 per cent from September 2011 to $935,600.

Sales of apartment properties reached 676 in September 2012, a 26.7 per cent decrease compared to the 922 sales in September 2011, and a decrease of 30.4 per cent compared to the 971 sales in September 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 0.7 per cent from September 2011 to $368,600.

Attached property sales in September 2012 totalled 246, a 33 per cent decrease compared to the 367 sales in September 2011, and a 35.8 per cent decrease from the 383 attached properties sold in September 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 2.7 per cent between September 2011 and 2012 to $458,600.

Amalia Liapis states, “While I expect the market to remain slow, I do believe we will see a slight increase in activity mid to late October, lasting until sometime in November. From there, I anticipate the market to remain quiet until the end of February. Now is a great opportunity for Buyers looking to upgrade, as prices have trended downwards and interest rates remain low”.

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 12.9 per cent to $3.1 billion in July compared to the same month last year. A total of 6,482 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, down 0.8 per cent from July 2011. The average MLS® residential price was $474,954, 12.2 per cent lower than a year ago.

"While some potential homebuyers in Vancouver are taking a breather over the summer months, stronger consumer demand continues across the rest of the province," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. MLS® residential unit sales outside of Vancouver were up 11 per cent in July over a year ago. In contrast, home sales through the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver were down 18 per cent over the same period.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 16.5 per cent to $23.5 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 7.9 per cent to 44,794 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 9.4 per cent lower at $525,183.

Article from British Columbia Real Estate Association, August 14th 2012

The MLS HPI benchmark price for all residential properties in the region is currently $616,000, that’s an increase of less than 1% compared to July 2011. However, we have seen slight reductions in home prices over the last 3 months. 

The Bank of Canada kept its trend-setting Bank Rate at 1.25 per cent on June 5^th, 2012. It was the 14^th consecutive policy meeting in which borrowing costs have been left unchanged.

While the text accompanying the announcement left the door open to future rate hikes, the language used was considerably less hawkish than in the previous announcement in April as the Bank sounded a cautious tone over the recent deterioration of the situation in Europe.

The announcement begins, “The outlook for global economic growth has weakened in recent weeks. Some of the risks around the European crisis are materializing and risks remain skewed to the downside. This is leading to a sharp deterioration in global financial conditions.”

The Bank also noted that while the U.S. economy was continuing to expand, albeit modestly, emerging economies were slowing faster and a bit more broadly than expected. That more modest global momentum combined with heightened financial risk aversion has led to lower commodity prices, which is weighing on Canadian exports.

Canadian economic growth was slower than the Bank expected in the first quarter of the year, 1.9 per cent compared to a projected 2.5 per cent; however, underlying economic momentum remains in line with expectations.

That said, the composition of growth has become less balanced. Specifically, housing activity has been stronger than the Bank had been expecting, and despite external risks, business and household confidence has remained resilient amid very stimulative domestic financial conditions.

In contrast, the contribution to growth from government spending is expected to be quite modest going forward in line with recent federal and provincial budgets. Additionally, the recovery in net exports is likely to remain weak in light of the combination of reduced external demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.

The Bank said the Canadian economy continues to operate with a small degree of excess capacity, and that even though headline CPI inflation was expected to fall below 2 per cent in the short term due to lower gasoline prices, the core rate inflation was expected to remain around the target 2 per cent mark.

The announcement ended by reiterating that, to the extent that the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, the possibility of a rate hike was not completely off the table, but that the timing and degree of any such action would depend heavily upon how current heightened downside risks play out in the months ahead.

As of June 5th 2012, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 5.34 per cent. This is down 0.1 percentage points from 5.44 per cent on April 17th, when the Bank made its previous policy interest rate announcement.

The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on July 17^th, 2012

Artice from Canadian Real Estate Association, June 5th, 2012

The number of properties listed for sale continued to increase in the Greater Vancouver housing market in May. The number of sales decreased year over year, but remained relatively constant compared to recent months.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,853 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May 2012. This represents a 15.5 per cent decline compared to the 3,377 sales recorded in May 2011.

May sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2001 and 21.1 per cent below the 10-year May sales average of 3,617. However, sales have been constant throughout the spring months, with 2,874 sales in March and 2,799 sales in April.

“Home sellers have outpaced buyers in recent months, however, there continues to be an overall balance between supply and demand in our marketplace,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 6,927 in May 2012. This represents a 16.8 per cent increase compared to May 2011 when 5,931 homes were listed for sale and a 14.4 per cent increase compared to April 2012 when 6,056 homes were listed for sale on the region’s MLS®.

Last month’s new listing total was 15.3 per cent above the 10-year average for listings in Greater Vancouver for May.

At 17,835, the total number of homes listed for sale on the region’s MLS® increased 7.9 per cent in May compared to last month and increased 21 per cent from this time last year.

“Our sales-to-active-listing ratio sits at 16 per cent, which is indicative of balanced market conditions,” Klein said. “As a result of this stability, home prices at the regional level have seen little fluctuation over the last six month.”

The MLS® HPI benchmark price* for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $625,100, up 3.3 per cent compared to May 2011 and up 2.4 per cent over the last three months. The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland** is $558,300, which is a 3 per cent increase compared to May 2011 and a 2.3 per cent increase compared to three months ago.  

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in May 2012 reached 1,180, a decline of 24.8 per cent from the 1,570 detached sales recorded in May 2011, and a 6.1 per cent decrease from the 1,256 units sold in May 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 5.1 per cent from May 2011 to $967,500.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,156 in May 2012, a decline of 5.9 per cent compared to the 1,228 sales in May 2011, and a decrease of 14.6 per cent compared to the 1,354 sales in May 2010.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 1.7 per cent from May 2011 to $379,700.

Townhome property sales in May 2012 totalled 517, a decline of 10.7 per cent compared to the 579 sales in May 2011, and a 5.3 per cent decrease from the 546 townhome properties sold in May 2010. The benchmark price of a townhome unit increased 0.9 per cent between May 2011 and 2012 to $470,000.

Article from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, June 4, 2012, available online at http://www.rebgv.org/news-statistics/spring-activity-remains-balanced-greater-vancouver-housing-market-0

According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the MLS® Home Price Index, the leading measure of Canadian home prices, increased in April 2012.

Highlights:
• The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index in April 2012 was up 5.2% year-over-year.
• Toronto again posted the largest year-over-year increase (7.9%), with more modest gainsin Calgary (4.0%), Vancouver (3.7%), the Fraser Valley (2.7%), and Montreal (2.3%).
• Year-over-year price gains accelerated in April in Toronto and Calgary but slowed in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley and were little changed in Montreal.
• Single family home prices again posted the biggest gains (6.4%), with apartment unit and townhome sales making more modest headway (3.6% and 2.7% respectively).

The MLS®Home Price Index (MLS®HPI) rose 5.2 per cent year-over-year in April 2012. The increase was similar to those for the previous two months and among the smallest since last August. However, the moderation in overall price gains in recent months masks diverging trends among the major Canadian markets.

In April, the MLS® HPI again posted the largest year-over-year increase in Toronto (7.9%), followed by Calgary (4.0%), Vancouver (3.7%), the Fraser Valley (2.7%), and Montreal (2.3%).

Year-over-year price growth in Greater Vancouver slowed markedly in April and moderated in the nearby Fraser Valley. By contrast, Montreal — a market that tends towards more stable price growth — saw a small uptick in line with the aggregate index.

Toronto’s price index accelerated for the second straight month, consistent with its market balance where negotiations continue to favour the seller. Calgary is also now seeing prices begin to advance in earnest, supported by a strong economic outlook, recent gains in in-migration, and strong full-time job growth.

“Canadian home price gains are generally expected to moderate, but there are a few hot spots where prices are being fuelled by some very strong housing market fundamentals,” said Wayne Moen, CREA’s President. “Toronto has less than two months of supply compared to six months nationally, so it ranks among the tightest of Canadian housing markets. With prices moderating in some housing markets and bucking the trend in others, buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to best understand how home price trends are evolving where they live. ”

Among the different housing types tracked by the index, single family homes again posted the biggest year-over-year gains in April (6.4%), led by two-storey single family homes (6.9%). The MLS® HPI for one-storey single family homes rose 5.6 per cent from April 2011, while townhouses and apartments saw gains of 3.6 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively.

“Just as there are some pretty clear differences emerging across markets right now, there have also been some interesting developments in price trends across housing types,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The one that really stood out in April was accelerating price growth for the townhouse segment right across the board. In Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, it was the only segment in which prices gains accelerated.”

Excerpt from MLS News Release, The Canadian Real Estate Association, May 25th, 2012

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - from the desk of AMALIA LIAPIS

The political elections in Europe went as expected, the parties who promised MORE won but it is doubtful they will be able to keep most of their promises as they are so far in debt that there is simply no more to give. Markets worldwide went down as the reality of the results sunk in, more instability & market volatility over the next few months. Hollande, the new President of France, is already making his presence felt & could put the Franco-German relationship under threat. The last socialist president of France, Mitterand, nationalized the Banks & imposed a wealth tax. Hollande has already stated he will introduce a 75% tax on the wealthy, so maybe the banks are next. The wealthy are usually the wealth makers so they will leave France like they have done previously & like they have done in other countries when overtaxed. I seem to remember the Beatles leaving England after they were given an award in the Queen’s Honors list for bringing in so much foreign money in from their records sales etc. Then the Government introduced a wealth tax that sent the Beatles & most other high earning entertainers overseas; some never to return.

Greece appears to be in total confusion with no clear winner & this could result in further decline of Greek prospects of recovery.  It was hopeless anyway.  Rating agencies are still closely looking at the sovereign & bank risks in Europe. I believe we should expect further downgrades in Spain, France & Greece.

So what about our Vancouver Real Estate market?! Well to begin with we are still awaiting the Finance Minister to introduce an incentive package for First Time Buyers of New Condos.  Developers screamed loud enough with the HST issue that this package looks like it might just become reality.  It is expected to get voted around June 2012 and is only available until March/April 2013.  This will help the new condo market.

I’ve been saying it for a couple of years now…Gastown is the favourite neighbourhood to live in…not a lot of product and what comes up for sale is usually gone quickly.  The downtown condo market will remain steady though out the summer with an emphasis on the entry level purchases. Westside homes continue to be active with steady activity in the $5million and up market.  Price and location will bring immediate results but the general market is still price sensitive...off by $10,000 or $20,000 and there will be little interest from Buyers.  It’s still a buyer’s market overall but have to say the available inventory is rather average.

As always I am available for any questions.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - From the desk of AMALIA LIAPIS

 About 3 weeks ago I noticed a change in the Vancouver market – things went relatively quiet.

Looking forward into the summer I predict the general market will continue that trend.  What that means is that there will continue to be moderate activity overall.  The properties that are receiving the most amount of attention are homes on the East Side of Vancouver in the $1,000,000 range (and yes this is considered good value). Any property; house, townhome or apartment that is on waterfront (or with a great view) and priced well is getting immediate attention.  Vancouver West homes from $3,000,000 and up are selling steadily.  But it all comes down to price so if the property has any shortcomings then an adjustment in price will be needed to gain a buyers interest.

World activities have had an effect on the real estate markets as well. Recent manufacturing data out of China indicates that the economy is still contracting, however at a slower rate than previously expected.  The political problems in Europe continue to surface as seen in the resignation of the Dutch cabinet over night & the weekend’s French election result. These events together with some weaker economic data saw the European markets tumble & Bond rates rose. The sovereignty risk rose in Greece, Spain & Italy when government control was weakened through political unrest. The Dutch problem arose last week when Fitch said it would put Holland (AAA) on ratings review if the government failed to take action to cut their budget deficit & stop their debt from rising. Now Holland will head to elections, earlier than expected, after 7 weeks of negotiations among the ruling coalition parties on budget cuts of Euro 14billion collapsed on Saturday. The Dutch economy is feeling the pinch including a housing market slump. Sounds familiar. Greece, Ireland & Spain revisited? Italy & Portugal?

Most European countries are living well above their means, especially those with pensions, welfare & unemployment benefits. Those earning incomes don’t want earn less through paying more tax in order to help keep these benefit payments at the same level. Who is going to pay? There is no short term fix & so far the decisions made amount to just kicking a can down the road. The debt remains as long as the will to reduce it to manageable levels falls into the political too hard basket. One step at a time, Europe will unravel. The first step could come from the French as they desert their president Nicolsas Sarkozy for a socialist government who would not cooperate with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in keeping Europe afloat. Sarkozy & Merkel have been the glue to keep the Euro together as most other leaders have only been interested in their own problems.

US reporting season continues & this is going well but not standout unless you are one of the favored Tech companies like Apple & Microsoft. GE & McDonalds were also better than expected. Investors have been disappointed with some of the Banks & some of the guidance given for future quarters. Despite its debt worries, the US market has outperformed the ASX thanks to QE1 & QE2.

Overall it’s the worry about Europe that keeps the US market on its toes. Everybody seems to be watching someone in today’s market & just shows what a small world we live in.

Closer alignment between home buyer and seller activity helped to bring greater balance to the Greater Vancouver housing market in February.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2, 545 on the MLS System in February 2012. This represents a 61.4 per cent increase compared to the 1,577 sales recorded in January 2012, a decline of 17.8 per cent compared to the 3,097 sales in February 2011 and a 2.9 per cent increase from the 2,473 home sales in February 2010.

February sales in Greater Vancouver were the third lowest February total in the region since 2002, though only 151 sales below the 10-year average.

“With a sales-to-active-listings ratio of 18 per cent, we fairly balanced conditions in our marketplace as we move into the traditionally busier spring season,” Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said.

New listings for detached, attached, and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,552 in February 2012. This represents a 2.5 per cent decline compared to February 2011 when 5,693 properties were listed, and a 3.5 per cent decline compared to January 2012 when 5,756 homes were added to the MLS in Greater Vancouver.
Last month’s new listing count was the second highest February total in Greater Vancouver since 1996.

At 14, 055, the total number of residential property listings on MLS increased 12 per cent in February compared to last month and increased 17.9 per cent from this time last year.

“Region-wide we’ve seen relative stability in home prices over the last six months, but it’s important to do your homework and consult your REALTORS because pricing can vary considerably depending on the neighbourhood and property type,” Setticasi said.

The MLS HPI benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $670,900 up 6 per cent compared to February 2011 and an increase of 0.9 per cent compared to January 2012. The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland is $601,300 an increase of 5.5 per cent compared to February 2011.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS in February 2012 reached 1,101 a decline of 21.5 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in February 2011, and a 12 per cent increase from the 983 units sold in February 2012. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 10.5 per cent from February 2011 to $1,042,900.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,020 in February 2012, a decline of 15.4 per cent compared to the 1,206 sales in February 2011, and a decrease of 5 per cent compared to the 1,074 sales in February 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.8 per cent from February 2011 to $373,300. 

Townhouse property sales in February 2012 totalled 424, a decline of 13.3 per cent compared to the 489 sales in February 2011 and a 1.9 per cent increase from the 416 townhouse properties sold in February 2010. The benchmark price of a townhouse unit increased 0.7 per cent between February 2011 and 2012 to $472,800.
 

March 12, 2012 REBGV Article available online at http://www.rebgv.org/news-statistics/greater-vancouver-housing-market-trends-near-long-term-averages-spring-market

Economists often get a bad rap for seeing the world as exclusively a glass half empty. Given this reputation, it is not surprising that economics is dubbed the ‘dismal science.’ Still, they are also known to call a spade a spade when they see it. We must do just this when we say that the Canadian economy ended last year on a more positive note than they had last predicted. This momentum represents a solid hand-off into 2012. What’s more, financial markets so far this year have enjoyed the absence of volatility that was the dominant theme for 2011.

The latest tracking shows the Canadian economy grew by 2.0-2.5% in the fourth quarter annualized an upside from most banks December forecast. An important part of the story has been Canadian consumers. We saw evidence of this in the retail sales’ numbers for November. They grew month-over-month by 0.3% in real terms and an even stronger 0.5% in nominal terms. With Black Friday and Cyber Monday increasingly becoming important calendar events on this side of the border, retailers were hoping to capitalize on greater mall traffic as consumers stocked up for the holiday season. We will have to wait and see if November’s gain comes at a cost to December. However, data so far suggest that there is an upside risk to our consumer expenditure forecast for the fourth quarter of 2011. The 2012 economic outlook should also be helped by higher consumer and business sentiment.

Also this week, the U.S. Federal Reserve injected further monetary stimulus into its economy by telling mar­kets and investors that it plans to keep its interest rates at near-zero levels until late 2014, or eighteen months longer than was previously stated. In the fallout of the announce­ment, U.S. and Canadian bond yields fell across the curve. In terms of currency, the loonie reached parity with the U.S. dollar yesterday for the first time since November 2011.

Business investment is expected to be a bright spot in the outlook given the low borrowing conditions and strong currency. The forecast is that Canadians will continue to spend, creating positive pressure for the domestic side of our national forecast. This spending behaviour does not come without repercussions. Canadian households are already posting record debt levels. What’s more, the longer low rates persist, the more difficult it will be to reverse course. If consumers continue to spur heightened real estate activity as well, there could be a larger and steeper correction for the housing market than the 10-15% that has been incorporated into various forecasts over the next few years in certain parts of Canada, but there will be an increase in values in other areas; like Downtown Vancouver and notably commercial real estate in neighbourhoods like Gastown, Chinatown, and the Downtown Eastside Harbour front. Given where this note has ended, perhaps it’s true that economists cannot say sunny and rosy for too long. At the same time, it’s prudent to constantly look for risks, such that there are no surprises if they come to materialize.

Excerpt from January 2012 Action Forex article by TD Bank Financial Group, available online at http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/the-weekly-bottom-line-20120128158365/

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – From the desk of Amalia Liapis

2012 MARKET FORECAST

As we move forward into 2012, the year of the Dragon, I thought it helpful to review some global activity that will have a measurable effect on our local real estate market.

China’s fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose 8.9% from a year earlier, beating analysts’ expectations of 8.6% growth. For the full year of 2011, China’s GDP rose by 9.2% compared to a 10.4% rise in 2010. It always amazes me how China can produce statistics so quickly but market analysts are always skeptical on how accurate the data is out of China as there is no way to reliably check the accuracy.

USA reporting season is in full swing for the December quarter and results here will direct US and world markets over the next few weeks. The US still has the world’s largest economy and, while it has slowed, guidance from the corporate world during reporting season will give a better idea of future recovery.  Again the next two weeks will be vital here, but so far so good. Economic data has been better than expected and this has been reflected in the US equities market now at five month highs. This is the year for the Presidential elections, so we can expect to see lots of big promises from both parties that should also help equity markets and real estate activity.

Europe’s financial problems will be with us all during 2012 as there appears no easy fix. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is hoping to raise $500 billion US to help with the European crisis. The US Treasury and some non-euro zone European countries, such as Britain, are reluctant to contribute and this could leave Asian and other developing countries to make up the shortfall.

Greece is trying to work out with its creditors how much they will write off. An agreement of sorts was reached last year as a part of the Greek bailout fund that bond holders would take a “hair cut” of 50%. Now, Greece wants that to be taken out to 68% and could be close to an agreement; however Greek Banks don’t want to be included. No one does, but most will agree if everyone else will. The European Central Bank (ECB) is the largest holder of Greek bonds with a total of around €50 billion ($61.5 billion US). Hedge funds are threatening to sue the Greek Government to make good on bond payments so this issue could hang over any deal made. We could then expect Portugal to be the next to stand up for Portuguese bond holders to also take a “cut,” perhaps then followed by Ireland. If Spain and Italy start looking for a deal then the world economy will be in turmoil for a long time which will have an effect on the stock markets.  During these economic times people start to move their money into other investments and so real estate is an obvious choice. Demand for investment properties will create a momentum in our local market. 

Moving forward to our Fall market, I expect an increase in housing/land prices and a stable condo/townhome market. The exception will be view properties, which will see a significant spike in demand and pricing in an increasingly competitive market.